The decline in U.S. bond yields has prompted some capital to flow back into the metals sector, providing sentiment support for SHFE tin prices [SMM tin futures brief review]

Daily Tin Market Review on July 2, 2025​​

On July 2, 2025, the most-traded SHFE tin contract SN2508 exhibited a pattern of fluctuating at highs: it opened at 270,600 yuan/mt, slightly higher than the previous settlement price of 269,840 yuan/mt. The intraday fluctuation range was 267,800–271,760 yuan/mt, with an amplitude of 1.47%.​​

It closed at 268,520 yuan/mt, up 0.44%, with a five-day cumulative increase of 2.04%. Trading volume was 73,999 lots, slightly lower than the previous day, while open interest increased to 31,365 lots (a decrease of 129 lots), reflecting an intensified tug-of-war between longs and shorts, with significant divergence in capital at the 270,000 yuan/mt threshold. SHFE tin SN2508: maintained a box-shaped fluctuation range of 258,000–273,000 yuan/mt on the daily chart. The support level was 265,000 yuan/mt (30-day moving average), and the resistance level was 273,000 yuan/mt.

​​Trading atmosphere: Downstream acceptance of high prices was limited, smelters held prices and were reluctant to sell, and terminals only maintained just-in-time procurement. Traders in east China and south China reported that orders were mainly for "small-scale restocking," with high prices suppressing the willingness to stock up.

​​LME tin 03 contract: The night session closed at $33,450/mt (-0.52%), with the intraday high failing to test the resistance level of $34,000 and the low reaching $33,200. $34,000 has become a key short-term resistance level.

​​Impact of capital flows: The decline in US Treasury yields prompted some capital to flow back into emerging markets, providing sentiment support for the non-ferrous metals sector.

​​Trump's tariff threats: Trump declared that he would not consider extending the July 9 trade negotiation deadline. If the expansion of tariffs on Chinese electronic components proceeds, it could suppress 30% of the export demand for tin's downstream industries.

​​Main theme of fluctuation: SHFE tin is expected to maintain a range of 258,000–273,000 yuan/mt. Breakthroughs should be monitored based on the implementation of tariffs on July 9 and US non-farm payrolls data.